Concepts
Confidence
Confidence describes the quality and consistency of the evidence behind a recommendation. It is not a prediction that customers will buy at the proposed price.
Updated
What confidence is trying to answer
A recommendation is easier to rely on when the relevant economic observations are available, reasonably current, mutually consistent, and compatible with the market's billing setup. Confidence brings those conditions into one visible signal.
It helps distinguish a well-supported target from one that happens to produce a precise-looking number from weak inputs.
Low confidence should reduce action
When evidence is incomplete or contradictory, the product can withhold a recommendation or make it ineligible for approval. This is more useful than filling every cell in a matrix and leaving the user to discover the weak ones later.
A low score is not a judgment about the market. It is a statement about the available evidence for this calculation.
What confidence does not measure
It does not measure demand, willingness to pay, competitive intensity, conversion probability, or expected revenue. Those require product and customer evidence beyond macroeconomic inputs.
Use confidence to decide how much scrutiny a target deserves, then apply commercial judgment before turning it into a live price.